Scotland's "Winter Leaving Rules" show little to no benefit for young people's education and employment destinations, according to new EPI report

A new report by the Education Policy Institute (EPI), funded by the Nuffield Foundation, explores how long-term changes in education and employment outcomes vary across the four UK nations. Findings show large increases in educational attainment, a narrowing of gender gaps and (mostly) reducing gaps in qualifications level by nation over the long-run.  

The report highlights the impact of differences in post-16 education and training systems and policies, with a specific focus on whether Scotland's Winter Leaving Rules have influenced the education and job prospects of young people. The analysis covers the education and employment outcomes of individuals born across the UK from the late 1940s through to the late 1980s.  
 
The report finds that: 

• Scotland's 'Winter Leaving Rules' require young people born between October and February to stay in school until at least Christmas of the following academic year, adding an extra 4-5 months of schooling. While this policy increases school attendance, it shows little to no benefit in terms of higher educational qualifications or employment outcomes. In fact, winter leavers are less likely to be in positive education or employment destinations than children who leave education at the end of academic years (e.g S4 and S5).  

• Narrowing of national gaps - For older cohorts, there were large gaps by nation in terms of the share of individuals with Level 2 qualifications (equivalent of GCSEs and National 5s). Amongst men born in the 1940s and 1950s, Level 2 qualification rates were much lower in Wales and Northern Ireland (55-60%) compared to England and Scotland (65-70%). Over time, this gap closed, with about 90% of men born in the late 1980s achieving Level 2 qualifications across all four nations. 

• Closing of gender disparities - Women started with lower attainment rates than men but their attainment increased significantly over time. By the mid-1960s cohorts, the gender gap had disappeared, and in recent cohorts, women are as likely—if not more likely—than men to have Level 2 qualifications.  

• Scotland has consistently outperformed other UK nations in maintaining higher rates of Level 3 qualifications. Stretching back to at least those born in the 1940s, Scotland has long had a higher share of individuals with Level 3 qualifications (equivalent to A levels and Highers). Amongst those born in the 1980s, nearly 80 per cent of men and women in Scotland had Level 3 qualifications, which compares with about 70 per cent in England and Northern Ireland.  

• Wales lags behind on Level 3 qualifications.  For those born in the 1980s, about 65-70% of women in Wales hold Level 3 qualifications. This is even lower for men, with about 60-65% of men in Wales born in the 1980s holding Level 3 qualifications.  

• Huge narrowing of gender inequalities in Level 3 qualifications. Amongst women born in the late 1940s and early 1950s, about 25-35% of women held Level 3 qualifications across the four nations of the UK. This is more than 20 percentage points lower than men born at the same time. For those born in the 1980s, these gender differences had vanished, with women, if anything, more likely to hold Level 3 qualifications. This illustrates some of the massive societal changes that have reduced gender inequalities in education over time across the UK.  

• Women still face barriers in employment across all four nations. For cohorts born up until the 1970s, the gap in employment rates for men and women continued to narrow, but there has been little progress since then. For those born in the late 1980s, 85-90% of men were employed, compared to just 75-80% of women, highlighting the ongoing challenge of achieving employment equality.   

The report recommends that: 

• The Scottish government should abolish winter leaving rules, so that all students in the same cohort leave school at the same time. This could either be at the end of S4, or S5 if the Scottish Government wanted all children to stay in school longer. This would eliminate the disadvantage faced by winter leavers and simplify the system for students, parents, and educators alike. Colleges and schools currently create partnership agreements to effectively undo some of the potential disadvantage from winter leaving rules. It would be better if this wasn't necessary.  

• More active and urgent action is required in Wales. Policymakers in Wales should be taking more urgent and active steps to understand and improve post-16 educational outcomes and inequalities. Policymakers should ensure all young people in Wales have access to high-quality Level 3 qualifications. It is also important to improve GCSE attainment and reduce inequalities so that more young people in Wales are in a position to take Level 3 qualifications after age 16.     
   

Luke Sibieta, Research Fellow at the Education Policy Institute said: 

“Despite recent concerns about declining literacy and numeracy levels, there is actually much to celebrate about the Scottish education system. Throughout the post-war period, young people in Scotland have been more likely to end up with Highers or A-level equivalent qualifications. 

One odd feature of the Scottish system is the existence of Winter Leaving Rules. Young people born between March and September can leave school in the summer after they do their qualifications at age 16. Young people born between October and February must stay on until at least Christmas. This makes very little sense. We find no evidence of any benefits of compelling young people to stay in school for an extra 4-5 months, and there may even be a disadvantage of leaving at Christmas, after many courses have already started. These winter leaving rules should be abolished, with a single leaving point in the summer for everyone in the same year group.  

Dr Emily Tanner, Programme Head at the Nuffield Foundation said:  

"This report is part of a wider project in which EPI and the University of Oxford are examining young people's pathways and outcomes in relation to the different education and training systems across the UK nations. The findings concur with other recent Nuffield-funded research on the Education Maintenance Allowance (IFS) and post-16 pathways of lower attainers (University of Westminster) in showing that additional time in education does not automatically improve educational attainment. More attention is needed on the quality of the time spent in learning and on developing the wider skills needed in employment. A forthcoming report evaluating the Raising of the Participation Age in England (University of Bath and Edge Foundation) will provide further evidence to support meaningful engagement of young people." 
 

Background  
The school leaving age is a critical feature of all education systems. The school leaving age across has increased over time in the UK, as it has in other countries. It rose from 14 to 15 in 1948, and then from 15 to 16 in 1973. More recently, differences have emerged within the UK after devolution. In England, the leaving age was increased from 16 to 18 from 2013 onwards, with young people expected to remain in full-time or part-education education or training up to age 18.  

Elsewhere in the UK, the school leaving age has remained at age 16. There are, however, fine differences in how these rules are applied across the UK, which link to differences in the precise age at which children must start school. In Wales, cut-offs are based on whether young people turn 16 by the end of August of a school year. In Northern Ireland, the key cut-off is the July 1st, which links to when children are expected to start school.  In Scotland, the cut-off is the end of February, which is also linked to when children are normally expected to start school.  

There are an additional set of rules in Scotland called ‘Winter Leaving Rules.' Under these rules, children born between March and September of an academic cohort can leave school in the summer after they have done their exams in year S4 (the equivalent of year 10/11 in England and Wales). However, those born between October and February must stay in school until Christmas and complete a large part of S5. 

It is important to note that qualifications are different in Scotland to the rest of the UK. Scottish qualifications are organised according to Scottish Credit and Qualifications Framework (SCQF). Some of the most popular qualifications include National 5s (SCQF Level 5) and Highers (SCQF Level 6) For consistency with analysis, we refer to qualification levels grouped according to Regulated Qualifications Framework.[2] We particularly focus on Level 2 (equivalent to National 5s in Scotland and GCSEs in the rest of the UK) and Level 3 (equivalent to Highers in Scotland and A level in the rest of the UK).  

This report forms part of a larger collaborative project between EPI and the Oxford University Centre for Skills, Knowledge and Organisational Performance (SKOPE). This wider project seek to compare post-16 education and training institutions across the four nations of the UK, including differences in institutions, approaches, participation levels and inequalities. A final report will be published in April 2025.