Inflation for breakfast
Period Covered: 01 – 07
February 2025
- Shop price inflation was unchanged at -0.7% year on year in
February, against a decline of -0.7% in January. This is above
the 3-month average of -0.8%.
- Non-Food inflation decreased to -2.1% year on year in
February, against a decline of -1.8% in January. This is above
the 3-month average of -2.1%.
- Food inflation increased to 2.1% year on year in February,
against growth of 1.6% in January. This is above the 3-month
average of 1.8%.
- Fresh Food inflation increased to 1.5% year on year in
February, against growth of 0.9% in January. This is above the
3-month average of 1.2%.
- Ambient Food inflation increased to 2.8% year on year in
February, against growth of 2.5% in January. This is above the
3-month average of 2.7%.
|
|
OVERALL SPI
|
FOOD
|
NON-FOOD
|
|
% Change
|
On last year
|
On last month
|
On last year
|
On last month
|
On last year
|
On last month
|
|
Feb-25
|
-0.7
|
0.4
|
2.1
|
0.4
|
-2.1
|
0.5
|
|
Jan-25
|
-0.7
|
-0.4
|
1.6
|
0.5
|
-1.8
|
-0.9
|
Note: Month-on-month % change refers to changes in the
level of prices.
Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the BRC,
said:
“While shop prices remained in deflation in February, food prices
on the month saw the biggest increase in the last year.
Breakfast, in particular, got more expensive as butter, cheese,
eggs, bread and cereals all saw price hikes. Climbing global
coffee prices could threaten to push the morning costs higher in
the coming months. In non-food, month on month prices rose as
January Sales promotions ended, especially in electricals and
furniture. But discounting is still widespread in fashion as
retailers tried to entice customers against a backdrop of weak
demand.
“Inflation will likely rise across the board as the year
progresses with geopolitical tensions running high and the
imminent £7bn increase in costs from the Autumn Budget and the
new poorly designed packaging levy arriving on the doorsteps of
retailers. We expect food prices to be over 4% up by the second
half of the year. If Government wants to keep inflation at bay,
enable retailers to focus on growth, and help households, it must
mitigate the swathe of costs facing the industry. It can start by
ensuring no shop ends up paying more than they already do under
the new business rates proposals, and delaying the new packaging
taxes.”
Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight,
NielsenIQ, said:
“With many household bills
increasing over the next few weeks, shoppers will be looking
carefully at their discretionary spend and this may help keep
prices lower at non-food retailers. However the increase in
food inflation is likely to encourage even more shoppers to seek
out the savings available from supermarket loyalty schemes.”
