Results of the Rapid Flood Guidance service 2024 trial

The Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) Rapid Flood Guidance (RFG) service trial ran from 14 May to 30 September 2024.

It gave short notice updates for England and Wales to supplement the Flood Guidance Statement (FGS). It provided:

• an advisory badge on the front page of the FGS for days when there was a heightened risk of rapid flooding
• RFG updates on heightened risk days

The service made use of new convective weather forecasting (nowcasting) capability from the Met Office's Expert Weather Hub combined with information from the FFC's hydrometeorologists.

During the trial:

• there were over 1,700 signups to the service
• the RFG badge appeared on the FGS on 52 days
• RFG updates were issued on 19 days
• a total of 55 RFG updates were issued - and downloaded over 16,000 times

Rapid Flood Guidance trial research

We undertook a programme of research during the trial to understand:

• how engaged and satisfied responders were with the RFG service
• to what extent the RFG service improved the response to rapid flooding

To do this we used:

• an in-trial feedback form
• post-event short surveys – sent out after an event to RFG users in the relevant geographical areas
• a post-trial online survey – sent out to all registered RFG users at the end of the trial
• post-event and post-trial interviews with RFG users

Our research included 655 individual engagements with RFG users.

User satisfaction

The research showed that users were very satisfied with the RFG service.  

84% rated their experience as positive. 

Users said that the RFG:

• provided an extra level of information and detail - allowing them to focus their efforts on high-risk areas
• was easy to use and understand
• used language which was clear and concise
• was easy to access through email and SMS

Improved response to rapid flooding

The trial results show that the RFG service has improved the response to rapid flooding.

When we asked users if the RFG updates helped them over and above any other information they had at the time:

• 88% agreed that it improved their situational awareness of the emerging situation (43% strongly agreed)
• 74% agreed that it helped them communicate the flood situation to others (33% strongly agreed)
• 60% agreed that it helped them make operational decisions ahead of flood events (24% strongly agreed)
• 30% agreed that is helped them in other ways (12% strongly agreed)

Typically, the RFG was being used:

• to alert relevant departments like highways and welfare services
• to inform others, either directly or as part of a summary of multiple sources of information
• in combination with other sources of information, particularly the National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS)
• in combination with responders' local knowledge to understand the potential impacts

Value of the service

The research showed that benefits that can be attributed to the RFG include:

• financial
• improved public, staff and patient safety
• better human resource and task allocation

We were able to identify case studies to illustrate the value of the RFG, including:

• an emergency planning officer deciding not to stand up tanker operations - saving the council money and reducing unnecessary fatigue for staff
• a response officer packing extra personal protective equipment (PPE) - and communicating the RFG to his team so they were prepared for the day ahead
• fire and rescue using the RFG information to plan an evacuation of a mobile home site at risk of flooding in good time
• mountain rescue coordinating volunteers so that their time was used effectively - and ensuring they could travel safely to where they were needed
• a hospital coordinator being able to schedule investigative and maintenance work better - and allocate tasks more efficiently

Looking to the future

The research showed that there is an appetite for a continuation of the service.

94% would sign up to receive the RFG in future, if it was made available.

Users see potential for it to be incorporated into their operational procedures and processes. However, they would be reluctant to do this until:

• there is confidence that the RFG will become a permanent service
• there is more clarity on how the RFG fits in with existing severe weather and flood warning services

FFC Head of Centre, Russell Turner said:

I'm really excited to see how the RFG has helped the responder community make improved decisions – and that they have continued to engage with the trial so positively.  It shows the responder community is keen to tackle this difficult issue. We are already using the results from the trial to develop the RFG further, as part of the FFC's commitment to improving our services - and we hope to be running an updated service during summer 2025.  

An RFG service for summer 2025

We are developing plans for a summer 2025 RFG service, incorporating what our users have told us in the trial. These are likely to include improvements to:

• user customisation, including local authority (rather than regional) level sign up
• clarity and readability of content
• mapping

In addition to the RFG service, further investments are planned in the science and forecasting of rapid flooding and its impacts.

Further details of the 2025 service will be communicated when they are available.

Part of a wider investment in improved forecasting

The RFG trial service is part of the Surface Water Flood Forecasting Improvement Project (SWFFIP) which is:

• a 3-year Defra and Environment Agency SR21 funded initiative, completing in March 2025

• contributing to Defra's Surface water management action plan - July 2018

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