Fieldwork conducted on 04-07 February
2025
According to BRC-Opinium data, consumer expectations
over the next three months of:
-
The state of the economy worsened to -37 in
February, down from -34 in January. This is the fifth
consecutive month in which expectations have worsened.
-
Their personal financial situation dropped to
-11 in February, down from -4 in January.
-
Their personal spending on retail rose to -5
in February, up from -9 in January.
-
Their personal spending overall remained at +4
in February, the same as in January.
-
Their personal saving remained at -3 in
February, the same as in January.
Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the British Retail
Consortium, said:
“People's expectations of the economy reached a new low, having
fallen almost 40pts since July 2024. Even Gen Z (18-27), the most
upbeat generation on the economy and their own finances, saw a
drop off in optimism. There was also a widening gender divide in
confidence this month, with women more pessimistic than men about
both the economy and their own finances by 13 and 17pts
respectively. With many businesses warning of the impact that
April's employer NIC's increase will have on hiring, and the
rising energy price cap pushing up the cost of domestic bills, it
is little surprise that many households are worried. And while
there was a positive increase in expectations of personal retail
spending, this may be largely driven by the expectations of
higher prices in the future.
“Expectations of higher prices are not unfounded, with two-thirds
of retailers saying prices will have to rise as a result of the
£7bn in additional costs, including higher employer NICs and a
new packaging levy. Almost half of retailers also warned of
hiring freezes, with entry-level jobs often among the first to go
as they seek any cost efficiencies to help them protect customers
from the worst of the rising costs. As the Government bill on the
future of business rates progresses through Parliament, it is
essential that no shop ends up paying more in rates as a result
of these reforms, otherwise retailers will face a triple whammy
of Budget costs, business rates rises, and new packaging and
recycling levies, all of which will filter through to consumer
prices.”
Consumer expectations for the state of the economy
over the next three months:
Consumer expectations for their personal financial
situation over the next three months:
Consumer expectations of spending over the next three
months by category:
Consumer NET expectations of spending over the next
three months by category:
-ENDS-
Methodology:
Fieldwork conducted by Opinium for the BRC. Sample included 2,000
UK adults and results have been weighted and assigned a net
score. The better/worse figures in the graphs are rounded, while
net scores are calculated from precise figures. Questions were:
- Over the next 3 months, do you expect your personal finances
to get better or worse?
- Over the next 3 months, do you expect the state of the UK
economy to get better or worse?
- What do you plan to do in relation to your spending over the
next 3 months?
- Reflecting on your retail spend across different categories,
overall do you expect to spend more or less on retail items over
the next 3 months?
- What are your expectations for saving over the next 3 months?
- What are your expectations for spending on the following
retail categories over the next three months compared to the
previous 3 months?
