Zero emission truck demand stagnates as overall market normalises, says SMMT

 The UK's new heavy goods vehicle (HGV) market fell for the first time in three years in 2024 with registrations down by -2.7%, according to the latest figures published today by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). The decline, however, including a -3.3% drop in quarter four, is compared with a strong 2023 which was the busiest year of truck fleet renewal since 2019.¹ Indeed, with 44,988 new registrations last year, it means 2024 is the second best annual performance across that five-year period.²

The annual decline was driven by falling demand for articulated trucks,³ down -12.4% to 19,079 units, which offset a rise in deliveries of new rigid trucks,⁴ up 6.0% to 25,909 units. Demand grew for box (13.4%), curtain-sided (7.1%), tipper (0.9%) and flat (4.1%) truck bodies, but tractors remained the most popular body despite a -13.4% fall in registrations to 18,570 units.

While the cyclical nature of HGV fleet renewal can cause annual fluctuations, it is concerning that operator demand for zero emission trucks fell, by -7.3% to just 217 units, with a 0.5% market share – the same as in 2023. The UK has signalled it will end the sale of all new, non-zero emission HGVs weighing up to 26 tonnes in 2035 – almost three quarters of the market last year – so uptake must grow exponentially in the next decade.

Manufacturers have invested significantly to deliver a wide choice of ZEV models but the higher cost of production means higher acquisition costs for operators – in addition to expensive depot infrastructure upgrades – posing significant barriers to uptake. The UK has the world's most ambitious end of sale targets for new, non-zero emission HGVs and substantial support is needed to meet them.

Given the Plug-in Truck Grant – available to fleet operators since 2016 – is set to end in six weeks' time, an updated replacement that offers genuinely compelling incentives for all new zero emission HGV models, along with support for depot upgrades, is critical. Such support will be available to a limited number of fleets taking part in the Zero Emission HGV and Infrastructure Demonstrator programme this year. However, with results not expected until 2030 at the earliest, further measures are needed to grow uptake further.

The provision of en-route infrastructure is also limited, with fewer than five HGV-dedicated chargepoints on UK roads. Mass market adoption of zero emission trucks depends on their charging needs being met via a national vehicle infrastructure strategy, which must consider all vehicle types. Indeed, given the majority of the new HGV market must be zero emission by 2035, action must begin now.

Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, said, “A slight decline in truck fleet renewal reflects a sector that is normalising after strong post-Covid growth. With most of the market nearly one full investment cycle away from the 2035 end of sale, however, urgent action is needed to address stagnant zero emission uptake. Manufacturers are delivering the products – now operators must be convinced to invest. Meaningful fiscal support and infrastructure rollout is essential, therefore, so that fleet transition is a compelling commercial proposition.”