Since the start of the pandemic, the NHS has had a major hospital
productivity problem: the number of hospital staff has grown
sharply without a matching increase in the amount of treatment
provided. The new government has rightly made improving NHS
productivity a major focus.
In some positive news, our new analysis suggests that the
post-pandemic decline in NHS hospital productivity in England has
started to unwind. Across a range of measures, hospital activity
in 2024 is substantially higher than in 2023. Crucially, hospital
activity has increased more quickly than staffing numbers,
indicating that – at least on this relatively simple measure –
their productivity has increased. Comparing January to July 2024
with the same period in 2023, the English NHS has 3.6% more
consultants and 6.4% more nurses and health visitors, but managed
to deliver 10.3% more elective admissions and 9.2% more
outpatient appointments. This has not translated in full to
additional numbers of patients being treated from the waiting
list, and the NHS is lagging behind its elective recovery plan,
but it is at least heading in the right direction.
This recent improvement is unambiguously good news for the health
service and a welcome inheritance for the new government. But
recent improvements only partially offset previous reductions in
estimated hospital productivity seen since the start of the
pandemic. Delivering the government's ambitious targets for
improvements in NHS performance will require continued focus on,
and increases in, health service productivity.
Olly Harvey-Rich, a Research Economist at IFS and an
author of the report, said:
‘NHS hospital productivity has fallen substantially since the
start of the pandemic, but that trend may now at last be
reversing. Staffing numbers increased over the last year, but the
amount of treatment provided in hospitals has increased even
faster, suggesting that those staff are being put to good use.
While undoubtedly positive news, we should remember that NHS
productivity is still below where it was pre-pandemic and will
require a further period of improvement before the post-pandemic
productivity hit is fully unwound. Nonetheless, this is a welcome
development, particularly as the NHS heads into winter.'
