Poll shows Labour’s lead grows to 20 points as majority of voters think it’s been a bad week for the Conservative campaign

Saturday, 1 June 2024 20:00

Labour's lead over the Conservatives has grown to 20 points following the first full week of campaigning, Opinium's latest poll reveals. Labour now takes 45% of the vote share (+4), while the Conservatives have dropped to 25% (-2). This is the largest Labour lead since Liz Truss was Prime Minister. The Liberal Democrats have 8% (-2), SNP are on 3% (+1), the Green Party has 6% (-1) and Reform has 11% (+1). Keir Starmer has also widened his lead over Rishi Sunak to 16...Request free trial

The Liberal Democrats have 8% (-2), SNP are on 3% (+1), the Green Party has 6% (-1) and Reform has 11% (+1).

Keir Starmer has also widened his lead over Rishi Sunak to 16 points as to who would make the best Prime Minister – with 36% picking he Labour leader compared to 20% who would choose the current PM. However, 31% would still pick neither.

While all three of the main party leaders have seen a slight drop in approval rating this week, Keir Starmer still fares best:

	Approve	Disapprove	Net	Change in net since 23-24 May
Keir Starmer	34%	37%	-2%	-1
Rishi Sunak	23%	56%	-33%	-2
Ed Davey	15%	22%	-8%	-3

Numbers might appear out due to rounding.

Conservative campaign not cutting through with the public

Overall, more than three in five (61%) do not think the Conservative campaign has been successful, with just 20% thinking it has been successful. In comparison, 43% thinking Labour's campaign has been a success, but a third (32%) do not.

The majority (52%) think the Conservative campaign has had a bad week, with only 17% thinking they've had a good week - down from 21% last week. The public is less sure about Labour's performance this week, with 34% thinking the party has had a good week, 30% a bad week, and 36% saying they don't know. This is in contrast to last week when 40% thought they had a good week, only 22% a bad week and 29% didn't know.

Opinium's poll also finds that this week's campaigning has made the public feel slightly more positive about Starmer, and slightly more negative about Sunak. Almost three in ten say their opinion of Sunak has become more negative since the start of the campaign vs 18% more positive. Starmer's stats are a mirror image, with 28% saying their opinion of him has become more positive and 18% saying more negative.

Lowering the voting age and introducing National Service least popular proposals

Looking at the ideas proposed by both parties in the last week, almost half (45%) think the Conservatives' headline-grabbing National Service policy is a bad idea. However, a greater proportion of voters (49%) think Labour's proposal to lower the voting age is a bad idea. The Conservatives' ‘triple lock plus' proposal is the most popular policy, with a majority (52%) thinking this is a good idea.

Policy proposals by the major parties	Good idea	Bad idea	Not sure
The Conservative proposal to raise the tax-free allowance for pensions specifically, ensuring that it rises inline with state pensions which is governed by the “triple lock”	52%	20%	28%
The Labour proposal to rule out any rises in income tax or National Insurance over the next 5 years	51%	20%	28%
The Conservative proposal to close 1 in 8 university courses that don't lead to graduate employment or higher pay, with the funding for used to create 100,000 more apprenticeships instead	50%	25%	25%
The Conservative proposal to introduce mandatory ‘National Service' for 18 year olds, with the choice of a full-time military placement for 12 months or a scheme to volunteer for one weekend a month for a year	35%	45%	20%
The Labour proposal to lower the voting age to allow 16- and 17-year-olds to vote in general elections	31%	49%	20%

Overall, most adults would not want their child to sign up for the Conservative's National Service proposal when they turned 18 (47% would not want them to, 36% would want them to). However, half (51%) of those aged 65 and over would have wanted their child to do this scheme when turning 18.

Public see Starmer as a future PM but are less certain Labour is ready for government

While more than half (53%) can imagine Keir Starmer as Prime Minister, this drops to 46% who think that the Labour Party is ready to form the next government. Two in five (39%) do not think Labour is ready to rule.

Similarly, 43% think Labour's policies are credible and believable, while 39% do not. However, this is substantially higher than the 29% who think the Conservative's policies are credible and believable – with 55% thinking they are not.

James Crouch, head of public affairs and policy at Opinium said: “[17:39] James Crouch

If the Conservative campaign strategy is to break things so people sit up and take notice then they've achieved it: a huge policy announcement that got people talking and cut through almost everything else. Unfortunately for Rishi Sunak the National Service proposal has galvanised Labour support before winning back any Undecided Conservatives.”

Opinium was the most accurate research agency in both the 2019 UK General Election and the EU Referendum.

-ENDS-

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 2,184 UK adults aged 18+ from 29th to 31st May 2024. Results have been weighted to be politically and nationally representative.

All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party's support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.