This year, the run-up to
Easter was in March, while last year the run-up was in April.
This calendar change distorts the year on year sales comparisons
– with results artificially higher in March and lower in April.
Therefore, we have also provided a combined March and April Total
sales figure, cancelling out this distortion (all 3-month figures
will already cancel out the Easter
distortion).
Covering the four weeks 31
March – 27 April 2024
-
Total sales in Scotland decreased by
4.0% compared with April 2023, when they had grown 9.1%. This
was below the 3-month average increase of 0.3% and the 12-month
average growth of 4.2%. Adjusted for inflation, the
year-on-year decline was 4.8%. When correcting for the distortion created by the
earlier timing of Easter, the average decline for March and
April was 0.2%.
-
Scottish sales decreased by 3.6% on
a Like-for-like basis compared with April 2023, when they had
increased by 6.2%. This is below the 3-month average decrease
of 0.1% and the 12-month average growth of 3.3%.
-
Total Food sales decreased by 3.0%
versus April 2023, when they had increased by 15.4%. April was
below the 3-month average growth of 2.0% and the 12-month
average growth of 7.5%. The 3-month average was below the UK
level of 4.4%.
-
Total Non-Food sales decreased by
4.9% in April compared with April 2023, when they had increased
by 3.9%. This was below the 3-month average decrease of 1.1%
and the 12-month average growth of
1.4%.
-
Adjusted for the estimated effect of
Online sales, Total Non-Food sales decreased by 7.1% in April
versus April 2023, when they had increased by 2.5%. This was
below the 3-month average decline of 2.7% and the 12-month
average of 0.0%.
David Lonsdale, Director |
Scottish Retail Consortium
“Scottish retail sales tumbled in
April compared to the same trading period the year before. Much
of this can be attributed to Easter falling unusually early this
year, into March, which brought forward shopper purchases and
meant shopper footfall and spending in April was
constrained.
“The decline was felt across the board with food retailing, DIY,
gardening, furniture, and household appliances all suffering.
Fashion fared poorly too despite the availability of new seasonal
ranges and widespread discounting. The only bright spot was
computing, which did well after a couple of torrid years.
“Notwithstanding the
Easter distortion, the figures do underline the sense that any
recovery in consumer demand and retail sales is at best fitful
and fragile. That said, there are some grounds for cautious
optimism. Recent reductions in employee national insurance
contributions and the freeze in council tax should hopefully
support demand over the months ahead, especially with shop price
inflation at its lowest level for two and a half years and
average wages growing in real terms. Hopefully, this summer's
major sporting events including the European football
championships and Olympics will also provide a welcome fillip to
retail, more so if the Scottish football team and Team GB have
something to celebrate.”
Linda Ellett, UK Head of
Consumer, Retail and
Leisure | KPMG
“The positive sales growth seen in
March was short lived as the impact of an early Easter and
continued wet and chilly weather saw April retail sales fall by
4.0% year on year in Scotland, with both food and non food sales
recording a drop when compared to the previous
year.
“On paper consumers should arguably be
feeling more able to go out spending again as economic conditions
improve, but on the back of two years of budgeting and cost
cutting, cautious consumers are releasing the purse-strings much
more slowly than they tightened them, choosing to save or pay
down debt. The positive sales figures seen in March due to
an early Easter demonstrate the importance that triggers such as
warmer weather, events and occasions can have in helping to
deliver the necessary impact required to get consumers spending
again.
“Retailers will be hoping that there
might still be an early summer interest rate cut, a strong
performance from Scotland in the Euros, and an uptick in
temperatures. Together this might be the trigger to boost
consumers' willingness to spend in the weeks
ahead.”
