Responding to the National Audit Office report NHS
England’s modelling for the Long-Term Workforce
Plan, Nuffield Trust Senior Fellow Dr Billy Palmer
said:
“The absence of a long-term workforce plan for the NHS was a
serious omission for far too long and its introduction was warmly
welcomed. Longer-term planning for the mix of staffing that the
NHS needs for the future is critical to putting services back on
a sustainable footing, but for it to be a success it must be
based on credible modelling. It is proper that the assumptions
underpinning this plan have been scrutinised and the weaknesses
identified must be addressed as a matter of urgency.
“The assumption on productivity gains, which equate to around
200,000 staff by 2036-37, always looked overly optimistic given
current trends which indicate falling productivity - this report
provides further evidence to that effect.
“We are also concerned about the ability of a health service,
which is already running hot and struggling to meet the backlog
of care, to find the staff and time needed to deliver the
increased levels of training and supervision required. The NAO
confirms that this ambition looks at the very limit of what was
thought possible - so the NHS needs to urgently take stock and
work out a strategy on how to deliver sufficient education and
training.
“The expectation that general practice will continue the recent
trend of shifting a higher proportion of care away from
fully-qualified GPs and onto those in training or other staff
groups is contentious and would need to be very carefully managed
if appropriate supervision is to be provided.
“There is no single route to overcoming the staffing needs our
growing health and care services need. The workforce plan was
rapidly produced, and this report makes it clear that further
work is needed by national bodies to ensure the ambitious goals
within this landmark plan match reality.”
