NFER: Government Spending Review is last chance to meet 6,500 new teacher target as unfilled teacher vacancies hit record high

Government Spending Review is last chance to meet 6,500 new teacher target as unfilled teacher vacancies hit record high

Teacher unfilled vacancy levels are at their highest rates since records began in 2010, and June's Spending Review is the Government's last chance to hit its target to recruit 6,500 new teachers.

These are some of the findings from NFER's 2025 Teacher Labour Market in England Annual Report ,funded by the Nuffield Foundation, and published today.

The study shows teacher leaving rates have not improved since before the pandemic and more leavers are of working age rather than retiring.

This, coupled with persistently low levels of recruitment into initial teacher training, is leading to widespread teacher shortages, with unfilled vacancies reaching six per thousand teachers in 2023/24 – double the pre-pandemic rate and six times higher than 2010/11.

The report explains that teacher supply policy actions, such as pay rises or workload reductions, typically take a year or two to improve staffing levels, and another year or two to show up in reporting data. It adds that the severity of the teacher supply crisis therefore means the Spending Review is the Government's “now or never” opportunity to meet its recruitment pledge of 6,500 new teachers during its five-year term.

Jack Worth, School Workforce Lead at NFER, and co-author of the report, said: 

“Teacher recruitment and retention in England remain in a perilous state, posing a substantial risk to the quality of education.   

“The time for half measures is over. Fully funded pay increases that make teacher pay more competitive are essential to keeping teachers in the classroom and attracting new recruits.   

 “The upcoming Spending Review provides the Government with the ideal opportunity to show its long-term commitment to increase the attractiveness of teaching.

“Both schools and the Government are facing budgetary challenges, so making this happen is going to need careful planning.”

Dr Emily Tanner, Programme Head at the Nuffield Foundation said:

"It is deeply concerning that teacher shortages continue and that disadvantaged children are most strongly affected. NFER's expert, independent analysis provides trustworthy evidence and identifies teacher pay, workload reduction, behaviour strategies and flexible working as the most promising areas for intervention."

Other findings:

• Ninety per cent of teachers considering leaving teaching in 2023/24 cited high workload as a factor, and pupil behaviour has become one of the fastest-growing contributors to workload since the pandemic.
• Trainee recruitment for all except five secondary subjects was below the respective target in 2024/25, and NFER's latest forecast for 2025/26 shows only five subjects have a reasonable chance of recruiting at or above target.
• The impacts of teacher shortages tend to be more acute in schools with a higher proportion of pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds.
• Last year's 5.5 per cent pay rise, coupled with the previous Government's introduction of £30,000 starting salaries, have returned starting salaries to 2010/11 levels in real terms.
• A lack of access to flexible working arrangements may be contributing to teachers leaving the profession.
• The national roll-out of the Early Career Framework (ECF) has had little impact on retention of early career teachers (ECTs).
• Growing teacher shortages are leading to increased reliance on unqualified and non-specialist teachers. Slight improvements to recruitment last year were limited to a few shortage subjects - such as biology and chemistry - driven mostly by higher bursaries.
• A key policy change in 2022/23, which expanded the list of countries whose teaching qualifications are recognised in England, has re-shaped the pool of international teachers in the workforce. Countries added include Ghana, Hong Kong, India, Jamaica, Singapore and Ukraine. According to the research, future policymaking should sustain this, as international recruitment can be a small, but important, part of new teacher supply.       

The report calls for:   

• The School Teachers' Review Body (STRB) to recommend that the 2025/26 teacher pay award exceeds three per cent, and/or strongly signals that it intends to make future recommendations exceeding forecasted rates of average earnings growth.
• The Government to ensure that the Spending Review delivers pay rises in the Schools Budget necessary to increase teacher pay by at least 6.1 per cent from 2026/27 to 2028/29.
• The Government to supplement pay rises with increases in spending on financial incentives targeting shortage subjects.
• The Government to develop a teacher workload reduction strategy to improve retention, that is fully integrated with the wider policy reform agenda.
• Schools to consider whether and how generative AI tools such as ChatGPT could help improve their teachers' planning workload.
• The Government to develop a new approach for supporting schools to improve pupil behaviour, reinforced by improved external school support services and backed with additional funding in the Spending Review.
• School leaders to consider adopting a wider range of flexible working practices in their schools to improve teacher retention.