Home Office statistics released today
show there were 17.1% (25,200) fewer applications for visas to
study in the UK in August than in the same month last year. This
continues the trend seen over recent months, with 16.6% (55,500)
fewer total applications in the year to date than at the same
point in 2023. This follows a change which took effect in January
2024 that prevented most students from bringing dependents with
them and may have made the UK a less attractive place to study
for some.
Student visa applications typically peak between July and
September, ahead of the start of the academic year. Assuming
September's figures follow the pattern of recent months, we can
expect to see fewer international students enrolling in UK
universities in the academic year that is about to start. This
will be important for universities' finances, which in recent
years have become increasingly reliant on international student
fee income to make up for falling funding for domestic
undergraduate students. In 2022-23, a fifth (£10.9 billion) of
all UK universities' income came from fees charged to
international students from outside the EU, which are not subject
to the same caps as fees charged to domestic undergraduates.
The sector as a whole appears to be in reasonable financial
health. In a recent report, we estimated
that while a fifth of English universities posted deficits in
2022-23 (after adjusting for one-off pension costs), these
deficits remained relatively small compared to providers' net
assets. However, recent UCAS data shows that less
selective universities had received 19,200 (2.5%) fewer
applications from domestic students by the June deadline for the
coming academic year, whereas applications to more selective
providers held up much better. If these universities also find
their international recruitment is more impacted by the curbs on
dependent visas, they would face a bigger financial hit.
Kate Ogden, Senior Research Economist at the Institute
for Fiscal Studies, said:
“The latest figures on student visa applications – down by
one-sixth compared to last year – suggest that UK universities
may no longer be able to rely on recruiting ever-increasing
numbers of international students to make up for real-terms falls
in the resources available for teaching domestic undergraduate
students. Much of the sector is in reasonable financial health
and should be able to adjust. But for some less-selective
providers which rely heavily on international student fees and
are facing greater competition for domestic students from
more-selective competitors, the next academic year could be a
difficult one.”
