Chief of the Defence Staff speech at RUSI Land Warfare Conference 2024

The big reason I wanted to be here today is because I am probably more excited about the future of the Army than I am any other part of Defence.  The imperative to learn from Ukraine - combined with the march of technology - creates a range of possibilities that play to the British Army's strengths.

I recognise that some will be sceptical of this view. There are near term financial challenges to work through. We are addressing historic underinvestment. And beneath the headline capabilities there are deficiencies in people, equipment, stockpiles, training and technology.

We need the humility to recognise that we are not as strong as we could be and then the determination and focus to put this right.

But none of that changes the scale of transformation underway in the Army. Or your responsibility as the custodians of British land power to deliver maximum return from the investment you receive.

And I want to unpack this by looking at three points:

• First, to recognise the strategic context: a NATO that is becoming stronger, and a Russia that is weaker.

• Second, to explore what this means for the British Army. How NATO can be your strategic anchor. How CGS has a vision that is aligned to Britain's role and purpose within this family of 32.

• And third, your part in this, and mine. Because the future of the Army matters to all of us. It is a priority for the whole of Defence.

Those of you who have heard me speak about the lessons of Ukraine will know that I take a deeply boring and unfashionable view that Russia's aggression serves to reinforce the central tenets of British Defence Policy.

For all the necessary debates that Russia's war in Ukraine has prompted – on defence spending, on mass, on technology and tactics – the most enduring lesson for the United Kingdom is that we are safe because we are a nuclear power and because we belong to the world's largest and strongest defensive alliance.

It is frustrating when I hear commentators contrasting Britain's capabilities with those of Russia without acknowledging the context that we would only ever fight a war with Russia, or any other peer aggressor, alongside our allies and partners.

NATO has grown from 30 to 32 nations. Twenty-three member states now spend 2% of GDP on Defence compared to just 3 members a decade ago. Our 3.2 million uniformed personnel already outmatch Russia's 1.2 million. Sweden brings an additional 25,000 active personnel and 40,000 reserves. Finland another 23,000 regulars and 280,000 reserves.

Take any measure of conventional strength – troops, tanks, armoured vehicles, fast jets, submarines  - and the NATO overmatch against Russia is enormous.

As for Ukraine, this audience will recognise more than most the extent to which Putin's forces are tied down.

Russia is making tactical gains – towns and villages taken at huge cost. They are also targeting our friends in Ukraine where it hurts most: in their energy sector, in their cities and even their hospitals. That is concerning.  But overall, the situation remains dire for Putin.

Russia has lost 550,000 men. And our assessments are that it would take Putin five years to reconstitute the Russian Army to where it was in February 2022; and another five years beyond that to rectify the weaknesses that the war has revealed.

It is not complacent to point this out. It is the responsible thing to do.

Our role as military leaders is to reassure the nation and stiffen its resolve. And our advice to ministers needs to be grounded in a thorough and honest assessment of the threats we face.

Yes, the threats can change and evolve. Which is why we keep them under review and test them against the intelligence we receive from our allies.

And while Putin may not directly attack a NATO member in such an overt manner as to trigger Article 5, we have seen that he is able to threaten us in other ways: in cyber and space, and underwater where our energy infrastructure and digital networks are most vulnerable.

But the fact remains: NATO is getting stronger, and Russia is getting weaker.  And the best way to keep Britain and Europe safe is by maintaining support to Ukraine so that Russia continues to lose.

And this brings me to my second point – if the United Kingdom's defence and security is rooted in NATO, then NATO is the British Army's strategic anchor.

But that doesn't mean our role within the Alliance should mirror that of our allies on the Eastern flank.

Poland is doubling the size of its Army over the next decade. The Baltic and Nordic states are talking about mass, resilience, and conscription. That is understandable. They border Russia. The threat is close.

Our geography is different. Northern. Maritime. One of just two island nations in an Alliance of 32. We don't share a border with Russia. But we are vulnerable in our dependency on sea lines of communication.

This shapes our role in NATO. We operate with the advantage of distance. And we have that special combination of political will and military capability that allows us to act with speed and effect and carry other allies with us.

The Joint Expeditionary Force is a case in point. An organisation born from both the camaraderie and shared suffering of Afghanistan, which has now come of age with the accession of Sweden and Finland and the new focus on NATO's northern flank.

Our convening power, our position as a framework nation, represents something special and essential within the Alliance which few other allies can offer.

It is why over the past two years I've been working with SACEUR to position the Allied Rapid Reaction Corps to become one of NATO's two Strategic Reserves, with the other being led by France.

What SACEUR wants most from the UK is an Army that is more lethal. More mobile. More available. Organised to advance, react and respond at Division, and Corps levels. And equipped to strike faster, harder and deeper. 

And if that starts to sound familiar over the course of today, then it is because it's exactly the kind of Army CGS wants to deliver.

Thanks to General Patrick, clarity of purpose and a sense of urgency are to the fore. Now under General Roly the task is to lead toward a future where the British Army puts NATO first and is first in NATO – by dint of its quality, deployability, sustainability and lethality.

In the past year we've seen Ukraine – a country which barely has a Navy - bring the Russian Black Sea Fleet to heel through a combination of drones and long-range missiles.

I want a British Army that can follow suit. To become an Army that can hold Russia at risk if SACEUR sees that necessity.  An Army equipped with hypersonic missiles, and battalions of one-way attack drones. An Army that serves as a disruptor in NATO. Challenging the Alliance to push the boundaries of technology and lethality.

It's the reason I said at the outset that the Army has the most exciting opportunity of any Service. And it reflects the British Way of Warfare.

But it rests on demonstrating the responsibility, the ambition and the drive required to seize the moment, which is my final point.

CGS's focus on doubling the fighting power of land forces by 2027 and to triple it by the end is the right one.

Politics responds to positive reasons to invest. And the more you do and the better you do it, the more you make the case for a stronger and more capable Army, and so the ambition grows.

You are already doing amazing things.

More productive as you were a decade ago with fewer people.  8,000 troops overseas on operations or training. 16,000 for STEADFAST DEFENDER. 37,000 held at readiness.

A footprint in fourty countries. A Land Industrial Strategy that supports 270,000 British jobs and £6 billion of exports.

An immense contribution to social mobility.  The strongest across all three Services. 37,000 cadets. 13,000 apprentices. The people, standards, training, and ethos which are the envy of the world.

So my most important message to you this morning is to keep on doing the amazing things you do. Be consistent. Maintain your confidence, ambition, and tenacity to see through CGS's vision and deliver for the nation.

Be demanding of me and Head Office where you think you are not getting the support you deserve. And I will do all that I can to champion the Army and to ensure you get what you need.  But also look inwards and all that you control to create betterment.

You are an outstanding Army. And you have the means to become even better in the years ahead.

So be bold. Be ambitious. And be demanding for your Service. Because that's how you'll deliver a stronger Army. And that's how we will keep our nation safe.