Disadvantaged primary and secondary pupils have fallen further behind their peers compared to pre-pandemic levels, new EPI analysis finds

The Education Policy Institute (EPI) has published its latest report on the state of education in England, focusing on the attainment gaps between disadvantaged pupils and their peers from the early years to 16-19 education.

The analysis, based on attainment data from 2023, shows that the new government has inherited an education system beset by inequalities, with some of the most disadvantaged and vulnerable young people continuing to fall behind their peers.

The report focuses on changes in pupil attainment between 2019 and 2023, finding that disadvantaged pupils are now over 19 months behind their peers by the time they sit their GCSEs, with the gap having increased at ages 5, 11 and 16.

With the exception of London, the disadvantage gap has grown across all regions in England by the end of secondary school, stressing the need for the new government to look closely at tackling regional inequalities.

However, attainment gaps for some groups appear to be narrowing, including for older pupils with Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) and those with English as an additional language (EAL), although the make-up of these groups has also changed over the same time period.

Key findings

• Since 2019, disadvantaged pupils at ages 5, 11 and 16 have fallen further behind their peers. In primary and secondary phases, the gap has grown by a month since pre-pandemic levels.
• The disadvantage gap for 16–19-year-olds is unchanged compared to 2019, meaning disadvantaged students are still over 3 grades behind their peers.
• Persistently disadvantaged pupils (those eligible for free school meals for at least 80 per cent of their school lives) are almost two years behind by age 16.
• By the end of secondary school, the disadvantage gap widened in all regions since 2019, except in London, where disadvantaged pupils continue to have higher attainment than anywhere else.
• Girls are still outperforming boys across all education phases, but gender gaps at age 11 and 16 have narrowed in recent years, partly driven by the falling attainment of girls. At age 16 boys are now 4.5 months behind girls, the lowest gap since the series began in 2011.
• There has been a significant narrowing of the gap since 2019 for pupils with EAL who arrived late to the state school system. Pupils with EAL who arrived in the final two years of secondary school were 11.8 months behind their peers at age 16. This is a reduction since 2019 of almost 9 months, driven partly by the changing ethnic make-up of this group.
• Attainment gaps have narrowed since 2019 for older pupils with SEND, but the gap has widened among reception-aged pupils to its widest on record for both children on SEN support and those with EHCPs.
• In later phases, the attainment of White British pupils has declined relative to most other ethnic groups in the wake of the pandemic, whilst the opposite is true for reception-aged pupils. On average, attainment across ethnicities has converged slightly since 2019.

The table below shows how the disadvantage gap has changed since 2019 for disadvantaged pupils:

Policy recommendations

EPI's 2024 Annual Report proposes several ways that the new government could tackle inequalities in education:

• A renewed strategy for closing gaps. This strategy should clarify the government's level of ambition regarding educational inequalities, should assess the effectiveness of existing policies aimed at reducing disadvantage, and should set out a pathway to implementation based on the best available evidence. 
• Targeted funding for disadvantaged pupils and students. There should be higher levels of funding for the disadvantaged, weighted more heavily towards persistently disadvantaged pupils, and there should be a student premium in the 16-19 phase, akin to the pupil premium at key stage 4.
• A cross-government child poverty strategy, which recognises that the social determinants of educational inequalities – such as poverty, housing, healthcare, transport and many other aspects of daily life – cannot be addressed by schools in isolation or even any one government department. 
• More effective support for children with SEND. We have previously recommended improved early identification, better teacher training, reviewing the high needs budget, ensuring access to other professionals such as educational psychologists, as well as improving access to Children and Young People's Mental Health Services and NHS assessments.
• More research on gender gaps, to better understand the declining attainment of girls and whether this is related to the recent large increases in poor mental health for teenage girls. 

Natalie Perera, Chief Executive of the Education Policy Institute (EPI), said:

“With examinations and grading having largely returned to pre-pandemic norms in 2023, this report provides the first, comprehensive, post-pandemic assessment of the disadvantage gap.

“If the new government is to make real progress in tackling these inequalities it must adopt evidence-based policies and interventions with urgency. These should include higher levels of funding targeted towards disadvantaged pupils and a cross-government child poverty strategy to tackle the root causes of educational inequalities.

“In the coming weeks and months, EPI will set out further details on these possible interventions in upcoming reports, including our proposal for a ‘student premium' in 16-19 education.”

Emily Hunt, Associate Director for Social Mobility and Vulnerable Learners at the Education Policy Institute (EPI), said:

“Whilst in 2023 exams returned to their pre-pandemic standards, educational inequalities look very different from how they did in 2019.

“Concerningly, not only are disadvantage gaps for 11 and 16 year olds at their widest levels since 2011, we are seeing worrying trends for children just starting school. That gaps at age 5 are widening across disadvantaged and vulnerable groups – as well as being at record levels for children with SEND – highlights the scale and breadth of challenges facing schools and the importance of the earliest years of life.

“Despite this there are some brighter spots, such as narrowing attainment gaps for older pupils with SEND and late arriving pupils with English as an Additional Language. It is not yet clear whether these changes represent actual improvements in educational outcomes for vulnerable pupils and further research is needed to better understand the drivers of these trends.

“However, we don't need to wait for further research to know that the gaps exposed in this report are stark and demand renewed focus from policy makers.”

ENDS

Background and methodology

This first part of EPI's 2024 annual report examines the attainment gaps between different pupil groups and their peers from the early years to 16-19 education. We analyse attainment gaps based on economic disadvantage, gender, ethnicity, English as an additional language (EAL), Special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) and geography.

Later this year, EPI will undertake additional research to further our understanding of what is driving the attainment gaps identified in this report, including the role of school absence.

Why does the report focus on changes in pupil attainment between 2019 and 2023?

Following widespread pandemic disruption during 2020 and 2021, 2022 saw the return of summer exams. However, when formal exams returned in 2022 adaptations were made to exams to acknowledge that pupils had missed a considerable amount of content. As such 2023 was the first year in which exam outcomes (and the differences between pupils from different backgrounds) could be directly compared with pre-pandemic levels.

How does EPI measure the disadvantage gap?

We present the disadvantage gap in months, with the exception of the 16-19 phase which is shown in grades, as the underpinning assumptions for our month methodology do not extend to the 16-19 stage.