The Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats have made
relatively few promises in their manifestos around core funding
for schools and colleges in England – they could
effectively achieve their commitments by maintaining school
spending per pupil in real-terms throughout the next parliament
(there is less clarity on the specific commitments from the Green
Party and Reform). If this happened it would mean an 18-year
period with no net real-terms increase in spending per pupil.
Given that pupil numbers are expected to fall by 400,000 between
now and 2028, a real-terms freeze in spending per pupil would
equate to a £3.5 billion real-terms fall in total spending by
2028. Delivering such a cut in spending would likely require
workforce reductions and/or school closures. There is even less
clarity about plans for funding further education. The number of
16- to 18-year olds will increase by 110,000 by 2028, placing
significant pressure on colleges and sixth forms. If the next
government wants to keep real-terms spending per student constant
at today's level (which is already 9% lower than in 2010), it
would need to find an extra £400 million (in today's prices) by
2028.
Luke Sibieta, Research Fellow at the Institute for Fiscal
Studies said: “Schools currently face a range of
challenges, from persistent inequalities in pupil attainment and
rising cost of special needs provision to difficulties recruiting
and retaining teachers and high levels of absence. Despite this,
the commitments made by the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats
would still allow for cuts in total funding as pupil numbers
fall, whilst Labour have refrained from making any commitment at
all on core school funding. This leaves schools across England in
the dark about how their budgets might evolve over the next
parliament. But protecting the total schools budget – rather than
per-pupil spending – could cost £3.5 billion a year by 2028. This
would not be an easy sum to find in a tight funding environment.”
Imran Tahir, Research Economist at the Institute for
Fiscal Studies said: “Colleges have faced sharper budget
cuts than all other stages of education since 2010. And while the
number of school-age pupils is set to fall over the next few
years, there will be an extra 110,000 16- to 18-year-olds by
2028. Keeping spending per pupil in colleges at today's level in
real terms would require an extra £400 million a year (in today's
prices) by the end of the next parliament. But while the main
political parties have emphasised the importance of further
education, particularly for young people, none has set out a
clear plan for funding colleges.”
Read the embargoed briefing
here.
